CONTEXT: The reproduction number is a fundamental epidemiologic concept used to assess the potential spread of infectious diseases and whether they can be eliminated.
OBJECTIVE: We estimated the 2017 United States HIV effective reproduction number, Re, the average number of secondary infections from an infected person in a partially infected population. We analyzed the potential effects on Re of interventions aimed at improving patient flow rates along different stages of the HIV care continuum. We also examined these effects by individual transmission groups.
DESIGN: We used the HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics (HOPE) model, a compartmental model of disease progression and transmission, and the next generation matrix method to estimate Re. We then projected the impact of changes in HIV continuum-of-care interventions on the continuum-of-care flow rates and the estimated Re in 2020.
SETTING: United States.
PARTICIPANTS: The HOPE model simulated the sexually active U.S. population and persons who inject drugs 13 to 64 years of age, which was stratified into 195 subpopulations by transmission group, sex, race/ethnicity, age, male circumcision status, and HIV risk level.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The estimated value of Re in 2017 and changes in Re in 2020 from interventions affecting the continuum-of-care flow rates.
RESULTS: Our estimated HIV Re in 2017 was 0.92 [0.82, 0.94]. Among the interventions considered, the most effective way to reduce Re substantially below 1.0 in 2020 was to maintain viral suppression among those receiving HIV treatment. The greatest impact on Re resulted from changing the flow rates for men who have sex with men (MSM).
CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that current prevention and treatment efforts may not be sufficient to move the country toward HIV elimination. Reducing Re to substantially below 1.0 may be achieved by an ongoing focus on early diagnosis, linkage to care, and sustained viral suppression especially for MSM.
